Bernstein says $200K Bitcoin target ’high-conviction but conservative’

In a note to clients on Monday, Bernstein analysts reiterated their conviction in Bitcoin, maintaining a "high-conviction but conservative price forecast" of $200,000 for this cycle. However, their latest "Digital Assets Memo" highlights a broadening mainstream interest in the financial innovation unleashed by blockchain technology, extending beyond Bitcoin’s "store of value" use case. Bernstein notes that while many investors differentiate between "blockchain (useful tech) and crypto (‘useless’)," this distinction is becoming blurred. The analysts point to stablecoins and tokenization-driven financial applications being built on public blockchain networks like Ethereum, which enjoys "maximum market share." They argue that if "real companies and institutional investors are innovating on the blockchain, doesn’t that make blockchain networks, and by implication, blockchain network assets (e.g ETH) valuable?" The report highlights that the crypto market cycle began with the institutionalization of Bitcoin, exemplified by the successful launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs, which now manage approximately $120 billion in assets. More recently, the launch of Ethereum ETFs has seen assets under management reach around $9 billion, with ETH ETF inflows totaling $815 million in the last 20 days. Bernstein emphasizes Ethereum’s uniqueness as a "decentralised computer," making it native to interesting blockchain use-cases such as stablecoins and tokenization. They add that financial activity on the blockchain is evolving from "retail trading memes, to blockchains providing open-financial rails for capital markets, payments and new-age fintechs." +